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AIA Rebounds ~2% Against Mkt; M Stanley Sees Absolute Share Price Upside in Next 30 Days
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AIA (01299.HK) opened 1.57% higher today and peaked at HKD72.25. It last stood at HKD71.6, up 1.92%, with turnover of 29.2869 million shares, involving HKD2.08 billion.

Morgan Stanley believed AIA’s share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days, given recent pullback, which has made its near-term valuation more attractive. The broker estimated the probability of this scenario at around 60-70% (or "likely"). The broker reiterated that AIA’s downside risk is limited and that the current share price represents a good long-term buying opportunity. It maintained an Overweight rating on AIA with a TP of HKD109.

Related News Jefferies: Stricter Scrutiny for Mainland Investors Opening Investment Accounts in Hong Kong; Deposit and Savings Accounts Unaffected
Morgan Stanley pointed out that market concerns are mainly focused on potential further regulatory tightening targeting Mainland Chinese Visitor (MCV) business. However, the broker did not expect this to materialize, on grounds that, firstly, regulatory rectification on cross-border stock trading and the State Council’s outbound investment rules have not targeted MCV insurance business; secondly, the business has been operating as usual over the past three weeks; and thirdly, the Hong Kong Insurance Authority maintains close communication with relevant mainland regulators and departments, with regulatory focus more on licensed operations and sales processes in Hong Kong.
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