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UBS Investment Bank Lifts CN 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 4%; CN Exports May Grow Faster During Tariff Moratorium
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UBS Investment Bank has raised its forecast for China's 2025 GDP growth from 3.4% to 4%. Tao Wang, Head of Asia Economic Research and Chief China Economist at UBS, attributed the upward revision to a reduced drag from net exports on economic growth and slightly stronger domestic investment and consumption compared to previous baseline forecasts. With easing China-US trade tensions and decreased external shocks, Chinese companies may continuously ramp up exports to the US market during the upcoming 90-day tariff moratorium, which may in turn accelerate China's export growth in the near term, Wang said. It is worth noting that, however, exports may experience a reverse drag adjustment in the following months, Wang stressed. Meanwhile, ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs could continue to dampen business confidence, delay domestic capital expenditure, and lead to further relocation of some supply chains out of China. The Chinese government's policy stimulus may also be more moderate at the same time. AAStocks Financial News |
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