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<Research>M Stanley Expects MO Casinos' 3Q Property EBITDA to Fall 8% QoQ, Prefers SANDS CHINA LTD/ WYNN MACAU
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Morgan Stanley released a research report expecting 3Q24 property EBITDA of Macau's casinos to fall 8% QoQ to US$1.71 billion (3Q24 GGR only fell 1% QoQ), missing forecasts, down 3% from 2Q24, recovering to 79% of the 3Q19 level. The broker estimated that Macau's casinos will see more negative EBITDA revisions in 2024 and 2025.

Morgan Stanley preferred SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) over GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), estimating that SANDS CHINA LTD may improve from 3Q24, with clear catalysts such as completed renovation, dividend distribution and share buyback by the parent company. As for GALAXY ENT, the broker expected its market share gain to stabilize.

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Morgan Stanley's 3Q24 forecast for WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) is in line with the market consensus, while its forecast for SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK) is higher than the market's expectation, but lower than the market's forecasts for other casinos under its coverage.

The broker's 3Q24 EBITDA forecasts for GALAXY ENT, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (MLCO.US) and MGM CHINA (02282.HK) are 10% below market consensus, and the broker expected their EBITDA to fall 7-20% QoQ.
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