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《大行》滙豐研究:中資銅股升勢跑輸銅價現買入良機 中國有色礦業(01258.HK)目標價升至18.6元
滙豐研究發表報告指,中國銅業股票落後於銅價的急漲,LME銅價於5月大幅飆升,突破每噸14,000美元,主要受供應擔憂驅動。秘魯宣布緊急能源法令,暗示可能出現減產風險;中東衝突同時導致硫磺貿易流中斷。該行指,銅的結構性牛市理由依然完好,主要包括電氣化及能源轉型帶來的強勁需求;銅在能源安全及AI基礎設施競爭中日益重要的戰略角色,反映在COMEX庫存持續上升;中國...
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《大行》滙豐研究:中資銅股升勢跑輸銅價現買入良機 中國有色礦業(01258.HK)目標價升至18.6元
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滙豐研究發表報告指,中國銅業股票落後於銅價的急漲,LME銅價於5月大幅飆升,突破每噸14,000美元,主要受供應擔憂驅動。秘魯宣布緊急能源法令,暗示可能出現減產風險;中東衝突同時導致硫磺貿易流中斷。

該行指,銅的結構性牛市理由依然完好,主要包括電氣化及能源轉型帶來的強勁需求;銅在能源安全及AI基礎設施競爭中日益重要的戰略角色,反映在COMEX庫存持續上升;中國需求韌性強勁,體現為國內庫存去化及洋山銅溢價維持穩定。

然而,儘管銅價走勢強勁且供需基本面有利,中國銅業股票僅錄得溫和升幅,主要原因是市場擔憂全球需求可能放緩,以及資金輪動至AI相關板塊。該行認為這些擔憂已被過度放大,並突顯出買入機會(
目標價詳見另表)。

該行升中國有色礦業(01258.HK)  -0.920 (-6.204%)    Short selling $6.98M; Ratio 2.435%   目標價至18.6元,仍是其最偏好的選擇,因為硫酸價格上升對其而言是盈利利好,而非成本壓力。該行認為市場對洛鉬(03993.HK)  -1.140 (-5.752%)    Short selling $144.79M; Ratio 12.876%   硫磺供應及鈷出口配額的擔憂過度。五礦資源(01208.HK)  -0.780 (-7.536%)    Short selling $38.62M; Ratio 7.670%   在該行覆蓋的公司中對銅價的盈利敏感度最高,憑藉增產計劃如期推進及嚴格成本管理,將充分受惠於銅價上漲。至於紫金(02899.HK)  -2.060 (-5.535%)    Short selling $384.06M; Ratio 14.204%   短期盈利對銅價的敏感度較低,因黃金貢獻較高,但繼續看好其優質及多元化特性。

另外,該行對江西銅業(00358.HK)  -2.400 (-6.091%)    Short selling $114.32M; Ratio 13.881%   維持「持有」評級,因其估值並不便宜,且公司大部分硫酸銷售為長期合約,難以受惠於硫酸價格上漲。(ha/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-15 16:25.)

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