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《預測》券商料滙控(00005.HK)首季替代表現經調整稅前利潤逾95億至101億美元 聚焦營運及股東回報指引
滙豐控股(00005.HK)將於下周二(5日)公布今年首季業績,由於期內HIBOR下降,預計淨利息收入將下滑,本網綜合3間券商預測,滙控今年首季替代表現衡量指標(Alternative performance measures)不包括須予注意項目(notable items)及策略交易之固定匯率除稅前利潤介乎95.74億至101.72億美元,對比去年同期97...
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《預測》券商料滙控(00005.HK)首季替代表現經調整稅前利潤逾95億至101億美元 聚焦營運及股東回報指引
Recommend
7
Positive
6
Negative
2
 
 

滙豐控股(00005.HK)  +0.400 (+0.284%)    Short selling $450.95M; Ratio 26.747%   將於下周二(5日)公布今年首季業績,由於期內HIBOR下降,預計淨利息收入將下滑,本網綜合3間券商預測,滙控今年首季替代表現衡量指標(Alternative performance measures)不包括須予注意項目(notable items)及策略交易之固定匯率除稅前利潤介乎95.74億至101.72億美元,對比去年同期97.66億美元,按年減少2%至增加4.2%。摩根士丹利及高盛預測,滙控今年首季列脹基準除稅前利潤介乎92.96億至93.24億美元,按年下滑1.7%至2%。

本網綜合3間券商預測,滙控2026年首季替代表現衡量指標不包括須予注意項目之固定匯率收入介乎185.01億至188.17億美元,對比去年同期177.4億美元,按年升4.3%至6.1%。綜合3間券商預測,滙控今年首季普通股權一級資本比率介乎13.7%,至14%,對比去年同期14.7%,按年跌0.7至1個百分點。本網綜合3間券商預測,滙控2026年首季度派息每股10美仙,與去年持平。

市場將關注滙控旗下財富管理與市場業務的表現、對中東局勢如何影響的信貸質量、營運策略。核心一級資本充足率、股息及股份回購指引。

【市場關注地緣政治影響淨利息收入展望】

高盛預期滙控季度替代表現衡量指標不包括須予注意項目之固定匯率除稅前利潤97.46億美元,按年大致持平,主要受惠4%收入增長,其中銀行業務淨利息收入料按年升6.6%,非銀行業務淨利息收入按年升1%。該行預期,滙控銀行淨利息收入將受重點關注,儘管本港銀行同業拆息走低將構成短期拖累,但將觀察管理層在市場波動下是否仍對全年銀行淨利息收入指引保持信心,抑或隨著結構性利好因素逐步顯現而提出潛在上望空間。該行亦將關注淨新資金趨勢具體情況,包括地緣政治風險升高是否正驅動更多資金流入。

該行亦預期信貸成本及額外撥備將為另一項審視重點。預測季度信貸成本為51個基點,包含2.5億美元額外管理層撥備,反映加劇的宏觀及地緣政治不確定性。此外,該行預期滙控更可能在第二季業績後宣布重啟回購,近期孳息曲線波動增加其他綜合收益估值風險,或致普通股權一級資本比率面臨10至20個基點下行壓力,預測該比率截至首季為13.8%。

摩根士丹利預測,滙控季績將受惠非淨利息收入增長,基於市場波動帶動。但本港銀行同業拆息平均水平按季跌約66個基點,對淨利息收入構成下行壓力。受地緣政治風險及宏觀經濟不確定性影響,預計滙控把部分信貸撥備提前於第一季入賬,預期管理層將額外撥備2.5億美元。在資本回報方面,預期滙控第二季才恢復股份回購計劃。該行預測滙控季度替代表現衡量指標不包括須予注意項目之固定匯率除稅前利潤95.74億美元,按年跌2%。

【券商料就中東局勢額外撥備2.5億美元】

摩根大通預測,滙控今年首季度替代表現衡量指標不包括須予注意項目之固定匯率除稅前利潤按年升4.2%至101.72億美元。該行指,鑑於中東地區不確定性依然高企,預期公司公布第二季業績時重啟回購,並假設今明兩年美國平均利率為3.4及3.25厘,以及今明兩年1個月本港銀行同業拆息均為2.4厘。該行亦指,滙控今年銀行淨利息收入指引高於450億美元,乃基於截至1月1底市場隱含利率,即今年美國利率平均為3.4厘,以及上半年本港銀行同業拆息平均為2.6厘,該行預期有關指引不會有任何變動,該行的相關預測為457億美元。

此外,該行亦料滙控財富管理業務將延續動能,收入按年升14%,主要基於內地訪港旅客人數按年升12%,數據可作為財富管理資金流入的領先指標,以及強勁的本港新股市場,首季集資額居全球首位,滙控在市場情緒提振下受惠,儘管部分被較高波動性所抵銷。該行亦預期滙控第一季中東地區將進行IFRS 9撥備,撥備率料為46個基點,略高於減值損失的常態水平。

---------------------------------------------


本網綜合3間券商預測,滙控今年首季替代表現衡量指標(Alternative performance measures)不包括須予注意項目(notable items)及策略交易之固定匯率除稅前利潤介乎95.74億至101.72億美元,對比去年同期97.66億美元,按年減少2%至增加4.2%。

券商│2026年首季替代表現衡量指標不包括須予注意項目及策略交易之固定匯率除稅前利潤│按年變幅
摩根大通│101.72億美元│+4.2%
高盛│97.46億美元│-0.2%
摩根士丹利│95.74億美元│-2%
按公司2025年首季替代表現衡量指標包括須予注意項目及策略交易之固定匯率除稅前利潤97.66億美元計算

---------------------------------------------

摩根士丹利及高盛預測,滙控今年首季列脹基準除稅前利潤介乎92.96億至93.24億美元,按年下滑1.7%至2%。

券商│列賬基準除稅前利潤│按年變動
摩根士丹利│93.24億美元│-1.7%
高盛│92.96億美元│-2%
按公司2025年首季列賬基準除稅前利潤94.84億美元計算
---------------------------------------------

本網綜合3間券商預測,滙控2026年首季替代表現衡量指標不包括須予注意項目之固定匯率收入介乎185.01億至188.17億美元,對比去年同期177.4億美元,按年升4.3%至6.1%。

券商│2026年首季替代表現衡量指標不包括須予注意項目之固定匯率收入│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│188.17億美元│+6.1%
摩根大通│186.03億美元│+4.9%
高盛│185.01億美元│+4.3%
按滙控2025年首季替代表現衡量指標不包括須予注意項目之固定匯率收入177.4億美元計算
---------------------------------------------

綜合3間券商預測,滙控今年首季普通股權一級資本比率介乎13.7%,至14%,對比去年同期14.7%,按年跌0.7至1個百分點。

券商│2026年首季普通股權一級資本比率│按年變動
摩根大通│14%│-0.7個百分點
高盛│13.8%│-0.9個百分點
摩根士丹利│13.7%│-1個百分點
按滙控2025年首季普通股權一級充足率14.7%計算
---------------------------------------------

本網綜合3間券商預測,滙控2026年首季度派息每股10美仙,與去年持平。

券商│每股季度派息預測
摩根大通│0.1美元
摩根士丹利│0.1美元
高盛│0.1美元
按滙控2025年首季每股派息0.1美元計算
(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-29 16:25.)

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