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《績後》一文列出券商於中行(03988.HK)公布季績後最新評級及目標價
中國銀行(03988.HK)公布首季業績後,今早低開0.6%,最新報5.11元下滑1.4%,成交額2.62億元。花旗指,中行首季稅前撥備利潤 (PPOP)按年增長7.2%(對比2025年第四季為按年增長7.8%),主要受惠於淨息差穩定及手續費收入良好,但部分被交易收益疲弱及成本收入比惡化所抵消。淨利潤按年增長4.2%達566億人民幣(佔2026財年市場預期的...
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《績後》一文列出券商於中行(03988.HK)公布季績後最新評級及目標價
Recommend
6
Positive
9
Negative
7
 
 

中國銀行(03988.HK)  -0.120 (-2.317%)    Short selling $392.01M; Ratio 29.748%   公布首季業績後,今早低開0.6%,最新報5.11元下滑1.4%,成交額2.62億元。花旗指,中行首季稅前撥備利潤 (PPOP)按年增長7.2%(對比2025年第四季為按年增長7.8%),主要受惠於淨息差穩定及手續費收入良好,但部分被交易收益疲弱及成本收入比惡化所抵消。淨利潤按年增長4.2%達566億人民幣(佔2026財年市場預期的23%),原因是信用成本上升,部分由較低的有效稅率抵消。中行首季盈利增長略高於該行預期。資產回報率(ROA)及股本回報率(ROE)按年分別下降3個基點及63個基點至各至0.58%及8.4%。花旗重申對中行「買入」評級及目標價5.92元。

中行昨收市後公布今年首季營業收入1,788.22億元人民幣,按年升8.44%。純利566.31億人民幣,按年升4.17%;每股盈利18分人民幣。期內,淨利息收入1,161.43億人民幣,按年升7.81%;淨息差1.26%。手續費及佣金收支淨額270.82億人民幣,按年升5.58%。資產減值損失382.86億人民幣,按年增18.73%。集團不良貸款率1.22%,較去年底降0.01個百分點,不良貸款撥備覆蓋率203.17%,較去年底升2.8個百分點。於今年3月底,中行核心一級資本充足率為12.18%,一級資本充足率為13.92%,資本充足率為18.23%。

【季績優預期】

花旗表示,中行首季淨利潤按年增長4.2%表現優於預期,在六大行中排名第二。展望未來,仍將中行H股列為中國銀行板塊的首選,料中行H股可能成為保險公司持續加倉中國銀行股的主要受益者,而海外業務ROE曾拖累中行整體盈利能力,但隨著海外ROE回升(已超過境內業務ROE),中行的ROE趨勢相較其他大行更具吸引力。該行亦指,中行在國有四大內銀中股息率最高(中行今年H股股息率4.9%,相較H股銀行平均4.7%),且不存在股本攤薄風險(因中行已於2025年完成增資)。

摩根大通發表報告表示,初步觀察中行今年首季業績屬於小幅超預期。中行在本季度錄得收入按年增長8%,利潤按年增長4%,分別超過該行預期4%和1%。業績主要受惠於淨息差的正面驚喜,以及淨利息收入與非利息收入的全面增長,稅前撥備利潤(PPOP)超過該行預期4%。收入的超預期部分被較高的減值成本所抵消(按年升19%),但信用成本為64個基點,僅比該行預期高3個基點,顯示銀行在收入動能允許的情況下,有意識地重建撥備緩衝。資產品質持續改善,不良貸款率下降至1.22%,不良貸款覆蓋率提升至203%。整體而言,該行預期中行股價將有溫和正面反應,因為收入超預期的質量和資產品質改善趨勢值得肯定。該行予中行「增持」評級及目標價5.8元。

高盛表示,六大國大商銀今年首季整體業績普遍好於預期。稅前撥備利潤(PPOP)按年增長12%(較該行預期高6%),主要受惠於淨息差按季回升2個基點(較該行預期高4個基點),推動淨利息收入按年增長8%(較該行預期高4%)。同時,營運效率提升,成本收入比改善2個百分點。非利息收入基本符合預期。其中,手續費收入保持良好增長勢頭,按年上升7%(較該行預期高1%);投資收益則因基數較低,按年大幅增長89%。在今年首坡六大國有銀行的年化股本回報率為9%,風險加權資產密度為54.5%(按年下降18個基點)。該行指中國銀行PPOP及淨利潤按年增長分別為7%及4%。高盛予中行「買入」評級及目標價5.35元。

------------------------------

券商│投資評級│目標價
花旗│買入│5.92元
摩根大通│買入│5.8元
高盛│買入│5.35元

券商│觀點
花旗│首季業績尚可,淨息差 穩定支撐,雖然交易收益較弱
摩根大通│首季業績小幅超預期,受惠於淨息差驚喜及廣泛收入增長支撐
高盛│PPOP及淨利潤按年增長分別為7%及4%,予「買入」評級
(wl/w)
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-30 16:25.)

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